Democracy is on a high. With over 57% polling recorded, the fourth round of UP's seven-phase election matched the general trend of high voter turnouts in 2012's assembly polls so far. Punjab saw an eye-popping 77% and Uttarakhand an impressive 70%. In UP, the first, second and third phases notched 63%, 59% and 57.2% respectively. All four turnouts till now have been interpreted in various ways. The ruling BSP predicts a wave favouring Mayawati. Opposition parties sniff a strong popular desire for change.

Traditionally, high polling compared to previous elections suggests anti-incumbency. But, as Delhi in 2008 or Bihar in 2010 showed, they may also signal support for incumbents. In 2010, the overall turnout of Bihar's six-phase poll - 52.43% compared to 46% in 2005 - saw Nitish Kumar back in the saddle. But note that he won on the development plank, having delivered on 2005's pledge to bring socio-economic change. In 2011, the Congress's return for the third time in Assam too was viewed as a mandate for peace and development.

If, the same year, the slogan of change helped Mamata Banerjee encash anti-incumbency in Bengal, the mandate was broadly similar. It called for a development-oriented Bengal, free of Nandigram-style political violence.

Linking low turnouts with continuity and high turnouts with anti-incumbency may not work in all cases. But what's clearly discernible is the aspirational mandates that voters have been delivering, including in successive elections in Kashmir. If UP's healthy voter participation does signal anti-incumbency, Mayawati's challengers may have bigger reason to regret not highlighting bread-and-butter issues - education, health, infrastructure - as much as they've shouted about caste-based patronage. More so, since Sunday's phase saw women and youth vote in sizable numbers, including in Lucknow whose turnout rose to 55% from 2007's all-time low of 36%. Both are likelier to want improved quality of life than caste-based sops that patronise and divide people.

Clearly, Indians are increasingly realising that the right political choice can help them fashion their own destinies. No small credit for this goes to the Election Commission. Voter demoralisation was widespread in the past, with poll processes marred by rigging, booth capture and other malpractices.

By carrying out voter education and enrolment campaigns, checking and cleaning up electoral rolls, rapping model code violations and thwarting bids to disrupt or manipulate polls via intimidation or money power, the EC has enthused voters. Thanks also to well-deployed security personnel, elections have largely been violence-free, be it in trouble-prone Bihar and Bengal in the past or Manipur and UP in this round of state polls. All of this boosts people's faith in the electoral system - and, ultimately, in the power of their vote.

Tags: Poltics

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